Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
