Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
