Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average count of per-day homicides monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that murder numbers may not point to enhanced national safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the least figure of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts warned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may mask periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes spikes of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst remarked.